Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Summer Experiment 2017: Day 1 in AWDE

The 2017 AWC Summer Experiment kicked off with collaboration from the Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) Concept and Product Assessment Capability (CPAC) laboratory. The AWDE lab featured discussions with pilots from various backgrounds, including general aviation and helicopter pilots and an Air Traffic Control Subject Matter Expert. These participants provided feedback on the experimental C&V product for the HEMS tool and the Probabilistic C&V Forecast product.


 

Feedback for today included discussions on participant preferences to see regional areas for both the HEMS and Probabilistic C&V products. The participants also suggested a zoom option for the products in order to focus on specific areas related to their flights. CONUS products are not particularly helpful and the participants would like to see cloud and visibility as separate tools.


Exploring GLM lightning in the tropics

The 2017 Summer Experiment at the Aviation Weather Testbed has begun, it's focus centered on mock ups of the operational TFM Convective Forecast desk, and on the Digital Aviation Services ceiling and visibility effort. Yesterday was a spin up day, allowing forecasters to peruse various new datasets as they explored the mock desks.

While the tropics were not in the overall experiment plan, it was difficult not to turn the attention southward to Franklin, particularly when new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data was available. Unlike ground based, this lightning data is optical, meaning that the concept is much different from typical ground base networks. Therefore, developers at the AWC have been exploring various methods of displaying this data as a grid. Below is an example of the GLM groups, a ten minute average estimated every two minutes.

GLM group lightning density associated with Franklin - 10 minute average every 2 minutes. THIS DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND NON-OPERATIONAL!
Participants also were able to look at groups as an energy density, also averaged over ten minutes every two.
GLM group energy density associated with Franklin - 10 minute average every 2 minutes. THIS DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND NON-OPERATIONAL!
These grids were designed for the AWC's N-AWIPS systems, both created on an eighth of a degree grid over the entirety of the GOES-16 domain. When zoomed in, the grids points are noted to be pretty coarse. However, these particular displays were designed with AWC tropical and global forecasters in mind, folks whose perspective is broader. In their eyes, this coarse resolution isn't a big issue. For others, such as TCF and Convective SIGMET, it may be that a similar display with higher resolution will need to be created. Additionally, gridded plots of the group energy density are also being added to the selection for later in the experiment.

Why gridded plots? As mentioned, GLM is an optical sensor, collecting lightning data in a very different manner than ground based networks... i.e. point data from that optical sensor does not equate to point data taken from a ground-based sensor calibrated to pick up a specific frequency. Therefore, it is important for forecasters to examine data with a different perspective than they have other lightning data in the past in order to glean it's value. For that reason, AWC has started the exploration with grids.

Over the next to weeks, we plan to take a cautious approach, keeping the known data quality issues in mind while collecting feedback and exposing forecasters to this new exciting feedback.

Monday, August 7, 2017

Summer Experiment 2017: Day 1





The first week of the 2017 Summer Experiment kicked off this morning with an introductory presentation about the three different experimental forecasts desks.

Participants from the FAA's AWDE Service Team dialed in via google chat, and guest participants from different NWS weather forecast offices, Southwest, and other NCEP research entities filled the testbed eager to take part in this week's activities.


After the introductory and tutorial presentations, participants were given the opportunity to pick a desk of interest and "get to know" the set-up in preparation for the rest of the week's activities.  Feedback is already coming in for the experimental GFE grids, which will be edited on a national level and then passed onto the Operations Proving Ground where forecasters will focus on certain WFO regions and issue a TAF forecast, using the national forecast grids as a starting point.


During lunch, Adam Schnapp from MDL gave a seminar about the latest LAMP upgrades, and future work beyond 2017. We were also joined by NCEP director Bill Lapenta, and NWS director Louis Uccellini for a few moments post-lunch as they were excited to see what was underway already in the testbed.

The afternoon continued with more interaction at the various desks, with lots of interest at the SFO
desk focusing on the verified clearing times from the high resolution models compared with the UK Met 330m resolution model centered on the area.


The day concluded with discussion about various data feed issues and possible risks for unavailable data in the days to follow. We will hope for the productive days ahead!  Tuesday is a full slate of forecasting at all desks so stay tuned! 

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

AWT Summer Experiment 2017 preview: TCF

The 2017 Summer Experiment at the Aviation Weather Testbed is set to begin next week! Staff at the AWT are hard at work now, putting the finishing touches on all of the planned activities. As per usual, a series of operational mock-ups will be used to simulate AWC operations and test various new and innovative concepts for aviation forecasting, while also working to refine current techniques. One topic in the latter category is the TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)

TCF was introduced in March as a replacement for the experimental CAWS that had been in place for several years. The 2017 experiment will apply feedback and lessons learned from the operational TCF during this past convective season to try increase the value added for customers, while also integrating new tools which forecasters can use to improve the accuracy of the forecast product itself.

4, 6, and 8 hour TCF forecasts on the web from August 2nd, 2017
One such new tool -or rather, a legacy tool adapted to the latest weather display system- is the INtegrated Support for Impacted air-Traffic Environments (INSITE). Originally built as a web interface, this tool provides a Flight Constraint Index value, or FCI, based on real-time and forecast convective weather as well as current and historical air traffic. Part of this is a generated 'heat map' or an overview of the greatest areas of expected constraint in various air traffic corridors. Recently the heat map portion of this tool has been adapted for both the N-AWIPS and AWIPS-2 weather display systems available to aviation forecasters.

Sample INSITE heat map from the SREF in AWIPS-2 at the Aviation Weather Testbed
Participants at the 2017 experiment will have this tool at their disposal at the mock TCF desk. They will evaluate it's utility in the generation of the TCF, and also critique the display itself and supply feedback on what might be improved for future use.

Another new tool comes from GOES-16, the latest in advanced weather satellites, which was launched in the winter of 2017. The Geostationary Lightning Mapper is an optical sensor on GOES-16 that provides total lightning detection over both land and ocean. Participants at the Experiment will have the GLM available to them in N-AWIPS and will be able to explore the utilization of it for the forecast and also for verification.

Sample gridded Group Energy Density from the GOES-16 GLM
An experimental version of the HRRR, the Time-Lagged Ensemble (TLE), will be available along with INSITE and GLM. The HRRR-TLE combines forecasts from multiple deterministic HRRR runs, initialized at the same time but valid at a different time. Participants at the mock TCF desk will have a chance to utilize and evaluate the performance of this dataset in N-AWIPS.
Sample HRRR TLE Probability of Echo Tops > 25,000 ft from https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/hrrrtle/
Aside from these new tools, the mock TCF desk will also be exploring the feasibility of a long range (i.e. day 2 and beyond) convective forecast. This sort of long range forecast was suggested by traffic flow operations and customers, who often have the need to plan out their staffing well in advance of an impending weather event. This concept will be automated and tested on the AWT web page using SREF data.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Thursday in the AWDE CPAC Testbed


The final day of participation for the AWDE CPAC in the testbed included valuable feedback from FAA meteorologists and an ATC specialist.

Thursday in the AWT

Forecaster reviewing radar mosaic imagery for issuance of convective products

Ceiling and visibility forecasters testing collaboration connecting national and local offices

Discussing how products are generated based on navigational points

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Wednesday in the AWDE CPAC Testbed


Wednesday in the AWDE CPAC included numerous participants with PERTI expertise. Valuable feedback was given while establishing communication with the AWT throughout the day.