The 2020 Summer Experiment Has Gone Virtual!

Like so many other things in 2020, the Summer Experiment has gone virtual! While we sure do miss seeing and interacting with our partners and stakeholders in the testbed, we are excited to be able to keep the tradition going by continuing to evaluate and evolve products for the aviation community!

In order to facilitate an evaluation in the virtual realm, we are focusing on one product with a more targeted participant list. In keeping with one of the themes from recent experiments, we're focusing on convection in the next-day planning regime. For that reason our targeted participants include forecasters from the various Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) which are co-located within the FAA's Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC). These forecasters often collaborate with Aviation Weather Center (AWC) forecasters on the Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF) creation and have a breadth of knowledge on how convection impacts planning in the National Airspace System (NAS). 

Map of CWSU coverage areas over the contiguous United States.

While we have looked at the idea of impact graphics for utilization in longer term planning for the NAS, this time we are bringing in probabilistic information to address uncertainty and start to better understand how this information can best be used in the planning environment.  For this evaluation, we are utilizing convective allowing ensemble guidance to diagnose the probability of convection exceeding TCF criteria. 

An example of the TCF Probability graphic highlighting the probability of sparse coverage of convection

Guidance imagery, depicting the probability of exceeding sparse and medium coverage TCF thresholds, will be automatically generated from two different model sources twice per day, in the early morning and early afternoon. Evaluation of the guidance by participants will help us meet the following goals

• Assess the usefulness of 24 hour summary information of TCF focused threats
• Identify optimal ways to provide, interpret, and communicate probabilistic convective information
• Assess the skillfulness of convection allowing ensemble systems for aviation focused convective forecasts

To help facilitate gathering feedback from our participants, we are once again partnering with the FAA's Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) Services group.  Throughout the week they will help us assess the usability and utility of this product from the user's perspective via one-on-one interviews and a questionnaire. We will also have two large group discussions during which additional stakeholders will be invited to provide their perspective and input. 

Stay tuned for early results and key takeaways from the experiment!

Day 1 of the 2019 AWT Summer Experiment

The 2019 AWT Summer Experiment kicked off on Monday with a full house of collaborators and stakeholders from multiple entities of the aviation weather enterprise. Participants include developers from NOAA’s Earth System Research Lab (ESRL), NWS’s Meteorological Development Lab (MDL), and NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC); meteorologists from each NWS region including Alaska and Hawaii, Deutscher Wetterdienst (German weather agency), and Southwest Airlines; as well as stakeholders from NWS headquarters, the US Air Force 557th Weather Wing and the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP).

There are three major themes that will be explored throughout the week. The first is an evaluation of new features and capabilities in the Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA) and Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) web tools.

The Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA) was recently expanded operationally to include the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea in order to give end-users graphical alternatives to the current text-based Area Forecasts still issued for that region. The AWT is also demonstrating additional geographical expansions over much of the Pacific, including Hawaii, and north into Alaska where user feedback will be critical. AWC will be updating the gridded ceiling and visibility (C&V) analysis in the HEMS tool this coming spring and is seeking user feedback on this, as well as some other potential updates to the tool, during the week long experiment.

In addition to the meteorologists and developers on hand to evaluate these updated web tools, pilots will be attending the AWT in person and remotely to provide feedback to human factors experts from the FAA Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) services group. This feedback is critical to ensuring AWC's products continue to evolve to meet the needs of the users most dependent on them.

The second area of focus for the week will be evaluating new cloud layer guidance derived from numerical model 3-D cloud information. Participants will be given the task to create a forecast for cloud evolution over an area with expected aviation impacts. They will have various visualization tools to use in order to examine the 3D cloud information including a point-and-click TAF capability and a point to point cloud cross section viewer. The goal is to have an evaluation of the guidance itself to better tailor post-processing and tooling, as well as how 3D cloud information can be used to improve aviation forecasts in the future.

Finally, AWT participants will be looking at potential extended-range convective guidance products. National traffic planning is increasingly looking at the next day and beyond to better get ahead of potential impacts before they start affecting the NAS, and determining the best path forward in how to present this information to all stakeholders involved is critical.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the week and early findings from each desk!