Convective Timing

This morning's analysis of the high-resolution ensemble models focused on the ongoing convection in the southeastern US.  One of the questions asked was when would convection clear out of the Atlanta, GA area.  One of the tools used were spaghetti/paintball plots showing the location of each of the individual members of the ensembles.  These graphics allow a quick visual of the solutions presented by the various ensemble members.

Spaghetti plot of AFWA ensemble members with composite reflectivity >= 40 dBZ, valid 17Z.

Spaghetti plot of SSEO ensemble members with composite reflectivity >= 40 dBZ, valid 17Z.

In general, more spread was observed in the AFWA ensemble than in the SSEO.  Timing was fairly good, with the location of leading edge of convection depicted in the same general area in southeast Georgia.

Radar and aircraft observations valid at 17Z.