Tuesday in the Testbed

Experimenters looking at ceiling and visibility guidance

CAWS support desk engaged in discussion

Experimenter modifying tools for grid editing efficiency

Experimental CAWS 004 issued for low turb over southern CA

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 004
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1919 UTC Mon 22 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1919-0100Z

ARTCCs affected: ZLA
Terminals affected: KLAX, KPHX

SUMMARY: Moderate to severe turbulence expected over S CA thru 23Z

DISCUSSION: Moderate to severe turbulence with isolated severe pockets are expected over S ZLA thru 01Z. NE flow will contribute to a moderate Santa Ana wind event with low level turb expected below FL100.

A SIGMET is unlikely at this point, an additional CAWS is also unlikely.

BOUNDING BOX: 35.33,-125.28 38.43,-118.18 32.61,-110.69 29.29,-117.41 35.33,-125.28

Experimental CAWS 003 issued for icing over WI and MI

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 003
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1735 UTC Mon 22 Feb 2016

Weather: Icing
Valid: 1800-2000Z

ARTCCs affected: ZAU, ZMP, ZOB
Terminals affected: KDTW, KMKE, KMDW, KORD

SUMMARY: Possible SEV icing over Great Lakes.

DISCUSSION: Moderate to occasional severe icing is expected over the Great Lakes with highest potential for severe from eastern WI, northern IL, and western Lower MI. This may impact arrivals/departures for KDTW, KMKE, KMDW, and KORD. A SIGMET is possible in the hatched area. Conditions will slowly shift east-northeastward into central lower MI and weaken after 20Z.

...Additional CAWS are not expected in this region...

BOUNDING BOX: 49.74,-95.84 48.65,-77.54 36.56,-80.29 37.06,-93.54 49.74,-95.84

Experimental CAWS 002 issued for turbulence over OH and PA

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 002
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1644 UTC Mon 22 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1800-2000Z

ARTCCs affected: ZAU, ZDC, ZID, ZKC, ZNY, ZOB
Terminals affected: KBWI, KDCA, KIAD, KMDW, KORD, KPHL

SUMMARY: MOD-SEV turbulence across Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States through 20Z.

DISCUSSION: A zone of frequent moderate with occasional severe turbulence is expected across northern ZID-southern ZOB-southwestern ZNY-northern ZDC. A localized regions of severe potential exists from far northeastern ZID-southern ZOB-far northern ZDC-extreme southwestern ZNY.

Moderate turbulence is most likely from FL360-270 with severe possible from FL340-290. Conditions are moving eastward and are likely to continue over the Mid-Atlantic coastline after 20Z.

...Additional CAWS are likely in this region...

BOUNDING BOX: 46.07,-90.98 45.78,-71.34 33.34,-73.50 33.28,-89.89 46.07,-90.98

Experimental CAWS 001 issued for severe icing potential near Salt Lake City

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1610 UTC Mon 22 Feb 2016

Weather: Icing
Valid: 1610-2000Z

ARTCCs affected: ZLC
Terminals affected: KSLC

SUMMARY: Severe icing potential near Salt Lake City.

DISCUSSION: Moderate to occasional severe icing is expected near Salt Lake City between FL100-160. Conditions will move slowly southeastward and improve by 20Z.

...Additional CAWS are not expected in this area....

BOUNDING BOX: 45.49,-118.81 45.98,-103.09 35.47,-103.33 34.71,-117.04 45.49,-118.81

Collaboration on turbulence research

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) for turbulence and icing hazards

Forecasters working in the AWT Remote Collaboration Lab (RCL) on experimental CAWS products for turbulence and icing

Impact-based Decision Support Services and Digital Aviation Services

Above and below: forecasters use AWIPS Grid Forecast Editor (GFE) to produce forecast grids of ceiling and visibility.

1530Z national map of observed flight category

Week 2 kicks off at the 2016 Winter Experiment

Week 2 is underway and the Aviation Weather Testbed is bustling with 22 visitors at AWC and another 17 at the FAA Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) lab in Atlantic City, NJ.

Aviation Weather Testbed in Kansas City

Collaborating with the FAA AWDE Lab in Atlantic City

Wrapping Up Week One

Most focused on non-convective CAWS Friday, using a case study from the end of December

The clouds and visibility desk centered on the West Coast, which experienced shallow fog this morning

Thanks to all of our participants! Look for updates on week two of the 2016 Winter Experiment (February 22-26).

Friday! Running an archived case today ... Dec 21 2015 starting 11Z

GFS Dec 21 2015 06Z run 500mb hts and abs vort valid 12Z

4km IR mosaic valid Dec 21 2015 1115Z

Experimenters at Work

Global forecast desk identifying regions of turbulence

Working with the new interactive icing tool

CAWS production desk discussing new satellite products

Quiet Weather Thursday

Quiet weather over the contiguous 48 states today so just one non-convective CAWS was issued, for icing in the mid section of the country.

Wed 2/10/16 CAWS 001 corrected for ARTCC's affected

20160210 - 001 (TB) FINAL CCA

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1655 UTC Wed 10 Feb 2016

Correction to CAWS 001 - 20160210

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1900-2300Z

ARTCCs affected: ZDV
Terminals affected: KDEN

SUMMARY: Moderate turbulence expected over KDEN.

DISCUSSION: Moderate turbulence expected over the KDEN terminal area FL180-080 with embd moderate to isolated sev FL270-FL220. Models indicate turbulence may continue past 2300z. Current AIRMET does not include this area but may be amended to include this area later today.

SIGMET criteria is not expected.


...Corrected ARTCCs affected...

BOUNDING BOX: 42.32,-112.00 42.70,-101.81 36.85,-100.56 36.55,-108.22 42.32,-112.00

Wed 2/10/16 17Z CAWS 001 issued for turb over Colorado

20160210 - 001 (TB) FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1654 UTC Wed 10 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1900-2300Z

ARTCCs affected: ZAB, ZDV, ZKC, ZLC
Terminals affected: KDEN

SUMMARY: Moderate turbulence expected over KDEN.

DISCUSSION: Moderate turbulence expected over the KDEN terminal area FL180-080 with embd moderate to isolated sev FL270-FL220. Models indicate turbulence may continue past 2300z. Current AIRMET does not include this area but may be amended to include this area later today.

SIGMET criteria is not expected.

BOUNDING BOX: 42.32,-112.00 42.70,-101.81 36.85,-100.56 36.55,-108.22 42.32,-112.00

Wed 2/10/16 ... east coast trough begins to move out

Tue 2/9/16 18Z observations

Tue 2/9/16 1616Z CAWS 002 amended for graphic, text, and level

20160209 - 002 (TB) FINAL AAA

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 002
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1616 UTC Tue 09 Feb 2016

Amendment to CAWS 002 - 20160209

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1616-2200Z

ARTCCs affected: ZBW, ZNY
Terminals affected:

SUMMARY: Moderate Turbulence over New England

DISCUSSION: Area of persistent Moderate Turbulence expected over New England between 170 and FL290 from 16Z-22Z. There is a good probability of ISOL-SEV Turbulence during this period, however no SIGMET anticipated.

Area Amended for graphic, text and level changes.

BOUNDING BOX: 47.25,-67.05 40.29,-67.01 38.72,-73.65 44.85,-73.83 47.25,-67.05

Tue 2/9/16 16Z CAWS 002 issued for high turb over New England

20160209 - 002 (TB) FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 002
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1605 UTC Tue 09 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1605-2200Z

ARTCCs affected: ZBW
Terminals affected:

SUMMARY: Moderate Turbulence over New England

DISCUSSION: Area of persistent Moderate Turbulence expected over New England between FL190-FL290 from 16Z-22Z. No SIGMET anticipated.

BOUNDING BOX: 46.77,-67.14 41.12,-67.06 39.54,-73.29 45.08,-73.48 46.77,-67.14

Tue 2/9/16 1538Z CAWS 001 Corrected for color and text

20160209 - 001 (TB) FINAL CCA

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1538 UTC Tue 09 Feb 2016

Correction to CAWS 001 - 20160209

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1538-2300Z

ARTCCs affected: ZJX, ZMA
Terminals affected: KMCO, KJAX, KPIE, KSAV, KSFB

SUMMARY: MOD OCNL SEV TURB SERN GA AND FL.

DISCUSSION: Between 15Z-18Z Turbulence will initially be moderate to severe below 080 then becoming moderate after 19Z continuing through 23Z.

Surface wind gusts are possible to 35-40KTS which may result in low-level wind shear near buildings and/or obstructions.

Corrected for color and text.

BOUNDING BOX: 29.84,-85.18 25.97,-82.69 27.16,-78.23 32.93,-79.28 33.03,-81.53 29.84,-85.18

Tue 2/9/16 15Z CAWS 001 issued for low turb over Florida

20160209 - 001 (TB) FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1457 UTC Tue 09 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1500-2300Z

ARTCCs affected: ZJX, ZMA
Terminals affected: KMCO, KJAX, KPIE, KSAV, KSFB

SUMMARY: MOD OCNL SEV TURB SERN GA AND FL.

DISCUSSION: Between 15Z-18Z Turbulence will initially be moderate to severe below 080 then becoming moderate after 19Z continuing through 23Z.

Surface wind gusts are possible to 35-40KTS which may result in low-level wind shear near buildings and shrubbery.

BOUNDING BOX: 29.84,-85.18 25.97,-82.69 27.16,-78.23 32.93,-79.28 33.03,-81.53 29.84,-85.18

Tue 2/9/16 Vigorous upper level system continues to plod eastward

Tue 2/9/16 18Z NAM Analysis of 500mb ht/vort

Wed 2/10/16 12Z ... upper level trough continues moving eastward

Wed 2/10/16 upper level trough moving eastward

Mon 2/8/16 18Z Prob IFR Forecast Verification (forecast valid Tue 12Z)

Light grey circles=MVFR, dark grey=IFR, black=LIFR; forecast not produced in areas with grey background

Monday 2/8/16 a very active low turb day over the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley

Semi-crazy anomalously deep east coast 5H trof

East coast weather at 1930Z

CAWS 007 issued for turbulence over southern California thru 03Z

20160208 - 007 (TB) FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 007
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1943 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1943-0300Z

ARTCCs affected: ZLA
Terminals affected: KLAS, KBUR, KONT, KLGB, KPSP

SUMMARY: Mod-Sev Low-level Turbulence Southern California Deserts and Interior Mountains

DISCUSSION: Mod-Sev Low-level Turbulence Southern California Deserts and Interior Mountains 090/SFC until 03Z.

BOUNDING BOX: 34.73,-122.50 31.34,-120.14 32.86,-114.05 37.61,-114.48 34.73,-122.50

CAWS 006 issued for turbulence over Florida thru 01Z

20160208 - 006 (TB) FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 006
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1933 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1933-0100Z

ARTCCs affected: ZHU, ZJX, ZMA
Terminals affected: KMCO, KTPA

SUMMARY: Moderate to Occasional Severe Turbulence over Southern GA and most of Florida

DISCUSSION: Moderate to Occasional Severe Turbulence over Southern GA and most of Florida. Turbulence will diminish after 01Z.

BOUNDING BOX: 29.34,-87.97 26.40,-82.22 27.41,-79.58 32.42,-80.90 31.76,-87.97 29.34,-87.97

CAWS 005 issued for icing from Georgia to Virginia from 20Z-01Z

20160208 - 005 (IC) FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 005
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1908 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Weather: Icing
Valid: 2000-0100Z

ARTCCs affected: ZDC, ZJX, ZTL
Terminals affected: KCLT

SUMMARY: Band of Moderate Icing Developing over the Southeastern US Coastal Plains

DISCUSSION: A band of Moderate Icing will develop after 20Z over the Southeastern US and moving eastward across the Coastal Plain and adjacent Coastal Waters through 00Z. The Nature of this icing may produce occasional pockects of Severe Icing. After 01Z icing potential will diminish.

BOUNDING BOX: 38.41,-80.33 37.61,-73.61 29.54,-80.32 29.89,-86.23 38.41,-80.33

CAWS 004 issued for icing from Missouri to Tennessee thru 22Z

20160208 - 004 (IC) FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 004
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1750 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Weather: Icing
Valid: 1750-2200Z

ARTCCs affected: ZKC, ZME, ZTL
Terminals affected:

SUMMARY: Moderate Icing MO through KY-TN

DISCUSSION: A shallow area of moderate icing from 18Z-20Z 090/050 will move southeastward BY 20Z through 22Z across Northern AR and into Western KY/TN and deepen to 140/040.

No SIGMET for severe icing is anticipated with this area of mostly moderate icing.

BOUNDING BOX: 44.14,-98.71 34.51,-94.98 33.94,-84.28 44.10,-87.02 44.14,-98.71

CAWS 002 Amendment for icing off the northeast coast

20160208 - 002 (IC) FINAL AAA

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 002
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1836 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Amendment to CAWS 002 - 20160208

Weather: Icing
Valid: 1836-2000Z

ARTCCs affected: ZBW, ZNY
Terminals affected: KBOS

SUMMARY: Moderate Icing Probable over Coastal New England

DISCUSSION: Till 20Z Moderate Icing is probable from 120/040.

Amended to remove Severe Icing from product.

BOUNDING BOX: 45.25,-71.06 39.86,-73.36 39.00,-69.79 45.38,-66.97 45.25,-71.06

CAWS 003 issued for Gulf coast turbulence thru 21Z

20160208 - 003 FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 003
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1645 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1645-2100Z

ARTCCs affected: ZFW, ZHU
Terminals affected: KIAH

SUMMARY: Moderate to Severe Low-Level Turbulence over Eastern Texas and Louisiana

DISCUSSION: Expect Moderate to Severe Turbulence from 070-SFC over Eastern Texas and Louisiana through 21Z. Area may require Center Weather Advisory or SIGMET issuance as day progresses.

BOUNDING BOX: 28.01,-97.75 27.88,-86.72 32.85,-87.10 33.01,-98.92 28.01,-97.75

IDSS at work - first Icing CAWS!

20160208 - 002 FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 002
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1543 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Weather: Icing
Valid: 1543-2000Z

ARTCCs affected: ZBW, ZNY
Terminals affected: KBOS

SUMMARY: Periods of Severe Icing Probable over Coastal New England

DISCUSSION: Till 20Z Moderate with periods of Severe Icing is probable from 120/040.

BOUNDING BOX: 45.25,-71.06 39.86,-73.36 39.00,-69.79 45.38,-66.97 45.25,-71.06

Preparing the Ceiling & Visibility forecast using AWIPS2 GFE

Forecaster using AWIPS2 GFE to forecast ceiling heights

AWIPS2 Interactive Icing Tool

Forecaster using the new AWIPS2 Interactive Icing Tool to help with the G-AIRMET Icing forecast

Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) at work - first CAWS for turbulence!

20160208 - 001 FINAL

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001
NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO
1525 UTC Mon 08 Feb 2016

Weather: Turbulence
Valid: 1800-2200Z

ARTCCs affected: ZFW, ZHU, ZME
Terminals affected: KDFW

SUMMARY: MOD-SEV TURB Probable over Eastern TX and Northern LA

DISCUSSION: Moderate to Severe Turbulence is probable between 18Z and 22Z across Northern TX and Northern LA. Area will continue to be monitored for SIGMET issuance.

Area expected to move east-southeastward after 22Z so additional CAWS statements are possible.

BOUNDING BOX: 34.86,-98.98 33.94,-89.45 30.34,-89.82 30.46,-99.05 34.86,-98.98

And we're off!

The interesting weather for the next few days will be over the eastern half of the country thanks to the midwest low pressure system with several intense shortwaves rotating around it. 

Feb 8 12Z NAM 500mb ht abs vort

Feb 9 12Z NAM 500mb ht abs vort