The 2020 Summer Experiment Has Gone Virtual!

Like so many other things in 2020, the Summer Experiment has gone virtual! While we sure do miss seeing and interacting with our partners and stakeholders in the testbed, we are excited to be able to keep the tradition going by continuing to evaluate and evolve products for the aviation community!

In order to facilitate an evaluation in the virtual realm, we are focusing on one product with a more targeted participant list. In keeping with one of the themes from recent experiments, we're focusing on convection in the next-day planning regime. For that reason our targeted participants include forecasters from the various Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) which are co-located within the FAA's Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC). These forecasters often collaborate with Aviation Weather Center (AWC) forecasters on the Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF) creation and have a breadth of knowledge on how convection impacts planning in the National Airspace System (NAS). 

Map of CWSU coverage areas over the contiguous United States.

While we have looked at the idea of impact graphics for utilization in longer term planning for the NAS, this time we are bringing in probabilistic information to address uncertainty and start to better understand how this information can best be used in the planning environment.  For this evaluation, we are utilizing convective allowing ensemble guidance to diagnose the probability of convection exceeding TCF criteria. 

An example of the TCF Probability graphic highlighting the probability of sparse coverage of convection

Guidance imagery, depicting the probability of exceeding sparse and medium coverage TCF thresholds, will be automatically generated from two different model sources twice per day, in the early morning and early afternoon. Evaluation of the guidance by participants will help us meet the following goals

• Assess the usefulness of 24 hour summary information of TCF focused threats
• Identify optimal ways to provide, interpret, and communicate probabilistic convective information
• Assess the skillfulness of convection allowing ensemble systems for aviation focused convective forecasts

To help facilitate gathering feedback from our participants, we are once again partnering with the FAA's Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) Services group.  Throughout the week they will help us assess the usability and utility of this product from the user's perspective via one-on-one interviews and a questionnaire. We will also have two large group discussions during which additional stakeholders will be invited to provide their perspective and input. 

Stay tuned for early results and key takeaways from the experiment!