Winding Down in the Testbed

Today is the last day of the 2013 AWT Summer Experiment. However, this does not mean our work is done! We will be collecting all the feedback, comments, and notes from the past two weeks so that we can evaluate the data sets, products, and overall experiment. We greatly appreciate all the hard work and dedicated efforts that resulted in a successful experiment.

It is a relatively quiet morning in the NAS. Two main areas of focus are SFO with low ceilings and visibilities and the mid-Atlantic states with ongoing and developing convection. Below are the experimental Aviation Weather Statements and forecasts out of the testbed this morning.

Afternoon Look

Below is the verification of the 16 UTC 2-hour experimental CSIG Convective Outlook valid at 18 UTC.

Light blue areas are 2-hour convective outlooks, red/blue/yellow areas are operational convective SIGMETs (red=0hr, blue=+1hr, yellow=+2hr), green areas are operational convective 2-6hr outlooks, composite reflectivity is shown in grey-scale and filled contours are Earth Networks Total Lightning 10-min density

Focus on the Northeast

The AutoNowCaster forecast shows increasing instability in the eastern part of the US (issued at 1554 UTC and valid at 1654 UTC).

 

Latest ASDI and Reflectivity

Echo Tops at 16 UTC (from CoSPA website)...

Active weather in the Northeast has prompted the issuance of the AWS below.

Here is the latest experimental 2-hour CSIG outlook valid at 17Z.

What is going on this morning across the US?

Today is a bit more active across the NAS (mainly in the northeast US) than we have seen over the past couple of weeks. Stay tuned as the weather and forecasts evolve over the next several hours!

Below is the experimental 2-hour CSIG Outlook issued at 14 UTC and valid at 16 UTC.

 

Here is a base reflectivity image overlaid with ARTCC boundaries from SPC's mesoanalysis page.

Operational 4-6-8 hour CCFP...

What's Going On this Afternoon in the Northeast?

Below is the experimental AWS that depicts where storm evolution and NAS impacts are expected.

Mid-Morning Update

Below is NCAR's experimental HRRR time-lagged ensemble-based Large-Scale Convective Storm Likelihood (filled contours) and Large-Scale Convective Storm-Convection Initiation Likelihood (green contours) issued at 15 UTC and valid at 22 UTC. The products depict the likelihood of LCS and LCS-Convection Initiation being within 125 km and 1-hour from valid time.

Below is the HRRR Convective Probability Forecast Product -- 5-hour forecast valid at 17 UTC.

This is the latest 2-hour Experimental Convective Outlook valid at 17 UTC.

What's in Store for Today?

Weather across the CONUS is a bit more active this morning than it has been over the past week. Below are a few forecasts that show potential areas for thunderstorm evolution through this morning. 

Here is the 2-hour experimental Convective Outlook valid at 16 UTC. Majority of thunderstorm potential looks to be contained in the southeast.

The Extended Convective Forecast Product created from SREF calibrated thunderstorm depicts areas of thunderstorm probabilities. The ECFP forecast for the first part of the day highlights the southeast for greatest probability of thunderstorms.

The AutoNowCaster forecast for this morning continues to show low probability of thunderstorm initiation across the CONUS. It does, however, highlight portions of the southeast for fostering a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development. We will monitor how the atmosphere evolves in this area for potential NAS-impacting weather. 

  ANC forecast valid at 1414 UTC.

Here is the operational 4-hr CCFP valid at 17 UTC.

Afternoon Updates and Forecasts

Below is the verification of the 17 UTC Experimental Convective Outlook valid at 19 UTC.

Light blue areas are 2-hour convective outlooks, red/blue/yellow areas are operational convective SIGMETs (red=0hr, blue=+1hr, yellow=+2hr), green areas are operational convective 2-6hr outlooks, composite reflectivity is shown in grey-scale and filled contours are Earth Networks Total Lightning 10-min density

Here is the experimental Convective Outlook valid at 21 UTC.

Below is the latest AutoNowCaster forecast issued at 1834 UTC valid at 1934 UTC.

So where's the focus for this afternoon?

Here's the Experimental CCFP valid at 19Z today...

Here's the experimental 2-hour convective outlook valid at 19Z

 
Here's the experimental HRRR convective probability forecast (8-hour fcst) valid at 19Z today ...

Here's the AutoNowCaster forecast issued at 1634 UTC valid at 1734 UTC.  This is one piece of information the CSIG forecaster had when creating his outlooks valid at 19Z.

Here's the CoSPA forecast valid at 1910 UTC, issued at 1640 UTC...

Verification of experimental 2-hour convective outlook valid 21Z Aug 19

Light blue areas are 2-hour convective outlooks, red/blue/yellow areas are operational convective SIGMETs (red=0hr, blue=+1hr, yellow=+2hr), green areas are operational convective 2-6hr outlooks, composite reflectivity is shown in grey-scale and filled contours are Earth Networks Total Lightning 10-min density

HRRR convective probability

HRRR convective probability, 7-hr forecast valid at 20 UTC

WEEK 2

Still very little thunder forecasted for this week, but we'll work with what we have.  Below is the ANC forecast at 1638 UTC today, valid at 1738 UTC.

Here's the experimental 2-hour convective outlook issued at 1655 UTC valid at 1900 UTC:

Here's the Experimental CCFP forecast issued at 1529 UTC valid at 1900 UTC:

Where's the thunder???

Unfortunately we have a very quiet day today.  Here's the operational Convective SIGMETs issued at 1855 UTC

18Z Convection

This graphic shows the experimental 2-hour convective outlook issued at 1555 UTC valid at 18Z overlaid on the operational convective SIGMETs, base reflectivity, and NLDN data all valid at 18Z.

What's today's convective story going to be?

Here's the surface analysis valid at 15Z

What are the high-res models saying?  Here's the AFWA probability of composite reflectivity >= 40 dBZ valid at 18Z (6-hour forecast)

Here's the HRRR composite reflectivity valid at 18Z (5-hour forecast)

Operational CSIGs overlaid on HRRR echo tops

Operational CSIGs valid 1930 UTC overlaid on HRRR echo tops valid at 20Z

Operational CSIGs overlaid on Experimental NSSL 4km Lightning Threat

Operational CSIGs valid at 1930 UTC overlaid on the 8-hour lightning threat forecast from the NSSL 4km model valid at 20Z.

Experimental Convective SIGMETs versus Operational Convective SIGMETs

The graphics below show the operational Convective SIGMETs valid at the same time as the experimental 2-hour convective outlooks posted below them.  Ideally the experimental 2-hour outlooks would capture the SIGMETs