Weather-wise, it's been a quiet week so far. Most of the convection of interest has been focused near and ahead of frontal boundaries in the southeast and the northern plains (see surface chart below).
Despite the unusually quiet pattern, the CSIG forecasters have been busy trying to adapt their forecast approaches to produce the 2-hour outlooks instead of the 2-6 hour outlooks. At the same time they've been evaluating several new data sets including AutoNowCaster (see the 1328Z run below)...
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| ANC convective likelihood valid 1438 UTC |
... and the NSSL 4km lightning threat ...
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| NSSL 4km Lightning Threat 2 (graupel snow and cloud ice) over previous hour, 16-hour forecast valid 16Z 15 Aug |
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