Mid-Morning Update

Below is NCAR's experimental HRRR time-lagged ensemble-based Large-Scale Convective Storm Likelihood (filled contours) and Large-Scale Convective Storm-Convection Initiation Likelihood (green contours) issued at 15 UTC and valid at 22 UTC. The products depict the likelihood of LCS and LCS-Convection Initiation being within 125 km and 1-hour from valid time.

Below is the HRRR Convective Probability Forecast Product -- 5-hour forecast valid at 17 UTC.

This is the latest 2-hour Experimental Convective Outlook valid at 17 UTC.